Analyses & Commentaries
Changing course in international climate policy – reaching a global agreement with different speeds
Hermann E. Ott
FACET Commentary No. 27 – February 2011
Since the Copenhagen conference, climate negotiations have stalled. Immediately following Copenhagen many believed that the conference in Cancún would finally bring a legally binding global agreement, but soon afterwards hopes were pinned on the conference in South Africa 2011 or the “Rio +20” conference in 2012 to bring forth a final agreement… [READ FULL TEXT]
In Massachusetts, Clean Energy Is Not a Distant Dream
Phil Giudice
FACET Commentary No. 26 – August 2010
Clean Energy is not some distant dream awaiting federal decisions; in the state of Massachusetts, we have gotten busy. Massachusetts has a long been a hot bed of innovation. Under Governor Deval Patrick, our innovative zeal has turned full force to our energy challenges, and the early results are impressive. [READ FULL TEXT]
The New Pecking Order: A Post-Copenhagen Look at Climate Policy and World Order
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff
FACET Commentary No. 25 – January 2010
It has only been a few years since the Europeans – suffering under what they felt to be the yoke of George Bush – longed for a multipolar world. No one expressed this sentiment more eloquently than former French foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin. He envisioned a world in which the “international community” would direct all of its energy into building “a new world order.” Better than the unipolar order, this “world of cooperation” would help “every nation to mobilize” in the shared interests of all. At the most recent UN Climate Conference, the nature of this new world order became apparent. [READ FULL TEXT]
Escape from Copenhagen – a Postscript
Christopher Flavin
FACET Commentary No. 24 – December 2009
President Obama’s speech in Copenhagen last Friday included a line that few who had spent the past two weeks listening to bickering negotiators would disagree with: “While the reality of climate change is not in doubt, I have to be honest, I think our ability to take collective action is in doubt right now and it hangs in the balance.” Also hanging in the balance is the habitability of the planet. The Copenhagen conference did not come close to setting the world on a path to stabilizing the climate (…) While it is tempting to respond to the near collapse in Copenhagen with a combination of anger and despair, neither will lead to the result that we and others believe is urgently needed: the transition to a low‐carbon economy in the decades immediately ahead. [READ FULL TEXT]
Growth, Prosperity, Climate Protection – We Can Have All Three!
Tanja Gönner
FACET Commentary No. 23 – October 2009
Climate change is a global challenge. The IPCC reports paint an unsettling picture of the grave impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns will lead to the desertification of vast areas, and sea levels will rise considerably in the coastal regions of our planet. Additionally, the number of extreme weather conditions is increasing. This will lead to fights for both water and land on a scale unprecedented in modern times. [READ FULL TEXT]
Power to the Youth: Copenhagen, Future Energy Supply and Intergenerational Justice
FACET Commentary No. 22 – October 2009
A recent poll by the popular German youth magazine Bravo (2009) brought to light: Our young people are not politically apathetic. In fact, the opposite is true: They show that they have a much better feeling for the urgency of issues than some wise experts. In a representative poll of more than 1,000 children and teenagers, 89 percent of respondents stated that climate change and environmental pollution pose the most important threat – more important than the financial crisis, violence at school, or terrorism. For today’s youth, the environment is priority number one on the political agenda. [MORE]
FACET Commentary No. 21 – September 2009
The 15th Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will be held in less than three months, in mid‐December in Copenhagen, Denmark. With the terms of the Kyoto Protocol set to expire in 2012, the international community declared the 2009 negotiations as the target date for concluding the successor agreement for the 2013 period and beyond. International expectations are high that President Obama will be able to play more of a leadership role on climate than either of his two predecessors. In the lead up to Copenhagen, there have been and will to continue to be a series of bilateral, mini‐lateral, and large multilateral meetings to deal with climate change. Various officials from the Obama administration, from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern to Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, have made numerous trips to China for important bilateral meetings in the hopes of securing a breakthrough before Copenhagen. [READ FULL TEXT HERE]
Why Discounting of CERs Cuts the Gordian Knot to Save the CDM
FACET Commentary No. 20 – September 2009
In just three years, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has mobilized around 5,000 projects of which over 1,500 have been formally registered with the CDM Executive Board (EB), the regulatory body overseeing its rules. More than 2.7 billion Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines are expected to be generated by these projects and over 9 billion Euros have been budgeted for CER acquisition. So far, the CDM has been a pure offset mechanism, where one ton CO2 equivalent reduction from a CDM project in a developing country (as enlisted in Annex A of the Kyoto Protocol) allows to increase emissions in an industrialized country (Annex B) by the same amount of one t. Theoretically, this is no problem as long as the reduction from the CDM project is real and as long as incentives for introduction of emission reduction policies in developing countries are not distorted. [READ MORE]
A Transatlantic Carbon Trading Market: Essential for a New Global Climate Architecture?
FACET Commentary No. 19 – August 2009
The European Commission is strongly advocating the establishment of a global emissions trading market through bilateral links between industry emission trading schemes. In January 2009, the Commission unveiled its visions of setting up an OECD-wide carbon market by 2015 latest, and to establish and integrate into this alliance trading systems in major emerging economies, no later than by 2020. What are the Commission’s motives to push for such an ambitious set-up of a global carbon market? In theory, linking carbon markets promises higher liquidity and a larger number of abatement options, thereby increasing economic efficiency. The Commission thus has the vision of a broad, globally linked carbon market as a key instrument in order to achieve the deep cuts in greenhouse gases needed to reach the EU objective of limiting global warming to a 2 degree temperature increase. [MORE]
How to Recover from a Likely Climate Disaster in Copenhagen
Stephan Slingerland
Summer 2009. The June Bonn meeting has finished, the August meeting is still to come. The summer break provides for some time to take stock and look ahead: Where are we now, what might happen in Copenhagen, and what would be needed thereafter? Of course, this article needs a disclaimer. An often‐heard phrase notes that “it is hard to make predictions, in particular when they are about the future…” That also holds for the outcome of the climate negotiations. However, some predictions are not as difficult as they might seem – in spite of the fact that few people yet dare to makethem in public. One of them is about the outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations. [MORE]
Reinhard Buetikofer
Let me start with a disclaimer. The slogan Green New Deal is not a Green Party invention. The Green New Deal is not a Green Party pet project, even though we Greens probably are among the most enthusiastic supporters of such a policy. The Green New Deal is a national as well as an international strategy that signals a basic paradigm shift for industrialized and also for developing countries. Green thinking, which has been ridiculed for so long, is going main stream. The narrative not only of progressive politics but the narrative of any political strategy which refuses to allow thedictatorship of the present and the past over the future, will be green. [MORE]
After Bonn-2: As the Clock is Ticking, High-Level Political Intervention Will Be Critical
Simon Schunz
In December 2007, the 13th conference of the parties (COP) to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Bali Road Map, initiating a two-track negotiation process towards a comprehensive post-2012 climate agreement. Besides providing the necessary institutional framework for the discussions on the future shape of the climate regime, one of its major achievements was to clearly indicate COP-15 (which will take place in December 2009 in Copenhagen) as a deadline by when negotiations had to be finalized. 545 days and numerous meetings later, the outcomes of the most recent round of negotiations, held between 1 and 12 June 2009 in Bonn (and referred to as Bonn-2), strongly suggest that negotiators have begun to come under serious pressure to meet this deadline. [MORE]
United States Climate Change and Energy Policy: An Overview and Analysis
David Campbell
On November 4, voters in the United States of America elected, for the first time inU.S. history, a candidate with African-American roots. Former U.S. Senator BarackObama (D-IL) received 53 percent of the popular vote and 365 electoral votes.Politically, the U.S. will turn a few shades bluer next year. Democrats haveincreased their majority in the House of Representatives to circa 80 seats, and willcontrol roughly 57 seats in the Senate, with three races undecided at the time ofwriting. There is a great sense of optimism, excitement and hope surroundingPresident Obama. The key question, for purposes of this FACET Analysis, is not how“blue” the next administration and Congress will be, but rather, how green. [READ MORE]
Reimund Schwarze
There has been widespread complaining about the tenacious negotiations in Poznań without any results. With the world far from sharing a common vision towards climate protection and negotiations in Copenhagen jeopardized and with them the agreement on mandatory goals regarding emissions reductions after 2012 – whoever had thought that international climate policy would simply continue onwards based on the architecture of the Kyoto Protocol, should think again. The world community certainly made no recognizable step in this direction at the negotiations in Poznań (…) However, even though the results achieved in Poznań appeared to be in between small and negligible, the feeling remains that the majority of the countries that were negotiating have finally recognized the seriousness of the situation. [MORE]
A U-Turn as Minimum Requirement: A European Perspective on Future US Climate Policy
Sebastian Oberthür
Judging from the past, high hopes for radical change of U.S. climate policies as a result of a change of the U.S. administration are a recipe for frustration. Despite high hopes for the Clinton-Gore administration, progress on domestic climate policies remained dismal after 1992, and the United States also remained a recalcitrant player in international climate policy. In fact, the Clinton-Gore administration negotiated as a “lame duck” for most of the aftermath of the Byrd-Hagel resolution which had been adopted by the U.S. Senate in 1997. While the coming into office of President Bush junior certainly did not raise high expectations for change to the good, hopes that he would at least not make things worse did not survive the reality check. Thus, it may be wise for Europe to be modest in its hopes and expectations towards the new US government. [MORE]
Katrin Jordan-Korte & Stormy Mildner
While the Bush Administration has shown little willingness to reduce greenhousegas (GHG) emissions before 2025, the energy and climate change debate inCongress has picked up considerable speed in recent months. After the enactmentof the Energy Independence and Security Act in December 2007, the Senate is nowdiscussing several comprehensive legislative proposals that would, for the firsttime, create mandatory limits for GHG emissions nationwide. Although not quite asambitious as European GHG reduction targets, a US climate change bill could endthe deadlock in international climate talks. It remains problematic, however, thatcurrent legislative proposals combine a national emission trading system withimport restrictions, so called border tax adjustments (BTAs). While such measuresincrease the political feasibility of national climate change legislation, they pose aserious threat to the international trading system and potentially violateinternational trade law under the WTO. [READ MORE]
Dale Medearis
The rapid and surprise collapse last week of the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade climate bill suggests that U.S. national-level efforts to address climate change will be more difficult and long-term than most anyone realized. Regardless whether the next U.S. President is Barack Obama or John McCain, the speed of Warner-Lieberman’s collapse makes clear that implementation of meaningful climate and energy policies in the United States has been set back for a while (…) Until real and actionable climate and energy policies emerge at the national level in the United States, the burden of addressing sustainable climate and energy work will fall on the shoulders of local and regional authorities. The central role that local governments are likely to play, offer several positive opportunities for dealing with climate change and bridging differences in the transatlantic environmental relationship. [READ MORE]
The international race for CO2 capture and storage: And the winner is…?
Heleen de Coninck
FACET Commentary No. 12 – June 2008
Ever since CO2 capture and storage (CCS) has gained prominence among greenhouse gas reduction alternatives, researchers, policymakers, and industry have speculated about who would become the technology leader in this field. Will it be a technology that follows in the footsteps of solar and wind energy and sees European companies as market leaders benefiting from an early mover advantage, strengthened by a favorable internal market? Will the enormous investments of the U.S. government in R&D combined with its greater entrepreneurial power and better investment climate pay off? Or will other countries – like Australia which is very active in this area, or maybe China – become the world’s market leader in CO2 capture installations, a highly capital-intensive technology? [READ MORE]
It’s time for the United States to “Cap-and-Invest”
Congressman Edward J. Markey
From a fascinating U.S. presidential primary season, two candidates have now emerged who have said that they will make climate policy a priority of their administration. As welcome a change as having White House leadership will be, the U.S. Congress will continue to play a critical role in the United State’s response to the climate crisis. The new Democratic Congressional leadership has already made important contributions to this critical issue with the passage of the Energy Independence and Security Act in December 2007, which raised the fuel economy standards of our cars, trucks and SUVs for the first time in thirty years. That change alone is a significant step towards reducing the total greenhouse gas emissions that the United States needs to achieve. But this was just the start. [READ MORE]
Preventing the Perfect Storm: How to Reform the Institutional Architecture of Global Energy Supply
Andreas Goldthau
FACET Commentary No. 10 – May 2008
A look at the latest news on global energy trends suggests a perfect storm: during the next 25 years, oil will remain the central component of the global energy mix, covering around one third of primary energy demand. Gas consumption will strongly increase, rising to an estimated 23 percent by 2030. At the same time, new consumers, notably China, have entered the scene and demand their share in global supply; state players have come to dominate global energy markets, flanked by a renewed tendency to lock up reserves; actual investment in exploration and production is running critically below estimated needs; and a looming climate change has triggered hectic efforts to enlarge the share of bioenergy in total fuel consumption, eventually creating yet understudied negative side effects. [READ MORE]
Thinking About Transatlantic Climate Policy
Axel Berg, MP
FACET Commentary No. 9 – May 2008
Transatlantic climate policy is in a rut. During the days of the Bush administration, very little has been done in terms of climate protection—one can even say that the opposite has happened. The latest declaration by the American president, that no carbon dioxide reductions are planned until 2025, diminishes any hope of a European-American cooperation in the near future even further. Neither the Stern nor the IPCC reports, nor the conferences in Nairobi and Bali seem to influence the U.S. White House in its awareness of climate change. Thus, the decisions and agreements made in Heiligendamm in 2007, which were also supported by George W. Bush, are just empty words. [READ MORE]
U.S. Poised to Act on Climate Change
Bill Becker
FACET Commentary No. 8 – May 2008
U.S. President George W. Bush delivered a speech in April acknowledging the challenges presented by climate change, but he offered no policies for addressing the problem. He called for America “to stop the growth of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2025,” leaving the world to assume that U.S. emissions would continue to grow unabated for 17 years with no regulations to ensure that action is taken even then. For many across the United States, it was a disappointment. But while Washington seems paralyzed on this issue, pressure is growing for aggressive climate action at other levels across the country. [READ MORE]
A Lukewarm Frontrunner? The EU Climate and Renewable Energy Package for 2020
Arne Jungjohann
FACET Commentary No. 007 – March 2008
On January 23, 2008, the EU Commission proposed a major legislative package to promote renewable energies and tackle climate change. The package is a proposal that will be negotiated in different legislative steps over the next two years. It has been highly controversial within the Commission and between the member states. The package includes proposals for strengthening the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) after 2012; a new directive to promote renewable energies; new climate targets for sectors outside the ETS; and a legal framework on carbon capture and storage (CCS). The EU Commission also suggested to assess in 2011 whether any measures should be considered to protect European energy intensive industries if other regions fail to introduce similar climate regulations. [READ MORE]
Alexander Ochs
FACET Commentary No. 6 – February 2008
The picture drawn by the media of the main protagonists at the UN conference on climate change in Bali was reminiscent of Sergio Leone’s famous spaghetti western. In one corner of the stand-off, a tenacious and uppity Europe, convinced that she will succeed. Then there was America, with her presumptuous plan to either get her own way or obstruct everyone else’s. And finally, China. Recently declared the world’s number one greenhouse gas emitter, she insisted on her right to pollute even more in the future. It was a boring picture, one we have seen all too often in the past. Until the very last day, the Bali summit was only the newest episode in a showdown habitually played out at yearly climate conferences: The European Union tries to provide leadership but cannot do it on its own, while the United States and China remain stuck in their regular gridlock ritual, both unwilling to take responsibility for their share of the problem. [READ MORE]
Sascha Müller-Kraenner
FACET Commentary No. 5 – February 2008
The UN climate summit on Bali was a turning point for international environmental diplomacy. Now the international community is on track to negotiate a first comprehensive global climate agreement with far-reaching consequences for the future of energy and all our industries. Bali has also opened talks about new finance transfers from industrial to developing countries that have the potential to transform “development aid” as we know it. The negotiations underway have also reached a new level of complexity that poses difficult questions for the future functioning of the system of international governance. Most importantly, Bali has exposed a shift of power that has been long underway. [READ MORE]
Friedemann Müller
FACET Commentary No. 4 – February 2008
The Bali Action Plan, if implemented, undoubtedly brings progress with regard to some important details, such as the agreement on measures against forest degradation. Looking at the main task, however, Bali cannot be considered a success. If the common goal of 189 member states codified in Article 2, Climate Convention, is taken seriously, Bali was, in fact, a disaster. This “ultimate objective” asks for the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. The IPPC 2007 reports make clear that the global emission peak has to happen before the year 2020 if we want to achieve this objective. In reality, however, global emission growth is not levelling off; rather, it has increased dramatically since 2000. In this case, neither Europe nor the U.S. can be blamed… [READ MORE]
Watch out for the U.S.! A domestic climate and energy policy is more important than Bali
Jonathan Elkind
FACET Commentary No. 3 – February 2008
I will not claim to you that I either watched the Bali meeting with particular care or studied its outcomes with great precision since that time. The blunt fact is that the meeting was at best fated to be an exercise in marking time — in large part as a result of the obstructionist approach of the Bush Administration. That said, I am very pleased that the Kyoto parties opted to “leave room” in the development of a post-Kyoto instrument for a new US administration (of whatever party) to take office and then join the negotiations. [READ MORE]
Beyond Bali and Bush: The Future of Climate Policy
Joshua Busby
FACET Commentary No. 2 – February 2008
The outcome of the Bali summit is more or less as I expected going in. The Bush Administration fiercely rejected targets and timetables while there were a couple of noteworthy advancements on avoided deforestation and adaptation. In terms of targets and timetables, the Europeans in particular wanted the U.S. to commit to an ambitious timetable for reducing emissions, between 25% and 40% by 2020. The Bush Administration was never going to commit to this at Bali. Everyone at this point is just waiting for the clock to run out on this Administration and is looking ahead to the President Bush’s successor. [READ MORE]
Camilla Bausch & Michael Mehling
FACET Commentary No. 1 – February 2008
It was probably one of the most emotional UN climate negotiations in history. In Bali, delegates saw tears on stage, the US were booed in public. Papua New Guinea was unusually frank when it brought a common adage to bear against the US, asking it to lead, follow, or “get out of the way.” And then, of course, the happy end: The US, faced with becoming the main scapegoat for a breakdown in negotiations, decided to go along with the proposed compromise. In the evening, when the Conference President gaveled the final decisions, yet more tears – tears of relief from some delegates, embraces, general fatigue, but overall happiness. [READ MORE]
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